for Sam Ori | @samori8 - The Fuse
Credits provide flexibility, reduce compliance costs, and were intended to allow the auto industry to deal with shocks like the plunge in gasoline prices and ensuing shift to SUVs that began in 2014.
The past two years have reminded many observers that black gold is tough to beat, no matter what commitments countries make, and that countries like China still have a lot of room to grow.
Instead of achieving the original, headline-grabbing efficiency target of 54.5 miles per gallon (mpg), the fleet of new vehicles sold in 2025 is likely to clock-in at more like 50 mpg. And even that target depends on fuel prices over the next decade—with oil prices needing to approach $100 per barrel by 2025 to keep efficiency above 50 mpg.